Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: We'll talk Razorback baseball today with Kendall Rogers of D1 Baseball, interested to get his perspective on a lot of things. A lot of big items going on this week around the sport. Want to tell you that we're brought to you by Eglin's Best. When it comes to your game day, you want the best in your lineup. That includes your eggs. Eglin's Best delivers more of the nutrition you need with six times more vitamin D and 25% less saturated fat than ordinary eggs. You can score now with Eglins Best. Better taste, better nutrition, better eggs. Visit eglinsbest.com for more information. Also brought to you by Bentonville Glass. They've been serving their community since 1971. They're committed, professional and versatile. If you're looking for a quality leader in northwest Arkansas or looking for skilled craftsmanship, look no further than Bentonville Glass for all your glass market needs with the highest quality products. You can come by and see them now at 507 South Main in Bentonville or online at bentonvilleglass.com Kendall Rogers, you know his name, one of the most trusted voices in D1 baseball. He joins us. Kendall, let's start with projections right now, regional projections, because that's, you know, that may be the hottest story on your site. Probably every time you put those out, there is a thought here that just will not go away that Arkansas might be able to host if they do enough down the stretch. The last couple of weeks, you know, we see what happens in Hoover. I'm of the belief that they're probably not going to be able to because the resume is just not strong enough.
You've got them right now as a number two seed.
Do you think there's any chance Arkansas can host and if so, what would they have to do to get to that point?
[00:01:33] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, there is a chance, absolutely. I mean, looking at Arkansas's resume right now, so the, the one good thing for the Hogs, you know, and I, I kind of talked to somebody about this last night, is when you look at like the bottom couple of seeds, I'll be really honest with you. Oregon, you know, Oregon state was our 15, Oregon was our 16. I, I feel like Southern Miss and Florida state in that 14, 13 spot are probably in pretty good shape unless they tank the last couple of weeks spots. I tell you what, it is wide open because Oregon State's RPI continues to tumble with each game they play. Dax Whitney, their Friday starters out for the year. He's the best pitcher in college baseball. And he's not pitching again this year. So you got to feel like they're, you know, with those bad RPI teams, they're probably going to lose a game or two the last couple of weeks. Even if they lose one game, they're probably dropping into the 20s. So I, I just really wonder about Oregon State staying in there and then Oregon.
You know, that was. Again, this is a projection. We're looking ahead. You know, we're making the assumption they at least win one game at ucla, win the UFC series. If they don't win that, you know, the USC series, maybe USC hopped in here, but like, Oregon was not some sort of slam dunk number 16 team. So when you look outside of those clubs, is there an obvious candidate? There really is not. I mean, Nebraska would be in the mix at 17, the RPI, but they're going to have to finish strong. Virginia's.500 in the ACC.
Wake Forest one game over.500 in the ACC.
You know, Boston College would be another team to keep an eye on. West Virginia, especially B.C. if they win that Georgia Tech series or 17 wins in the ACC that put them at 19. I mean, I gotta feel like it's a northern school they're gonna host. But tell you what, again, it's a lot, it's a lot of like, hypotheticals. If this doesn't happen and that doesn't happen. But let's just say Boston College loses that GT series and West Virginia lose that series of Kansas weekend, well, then it's really wide open for the Hogs. I mean, you know, you're looking at a situation where you're, let's just assume you win your last two series against OU, Kentucky, you go into Hoover at 17, 17 and 13 in the league, and your RPS probably 23, 24. You win a game or two in Hoover and it absolutely could happen. 100. Yeah, that is what happens probably about
[00:03:40] Speaker A: beating the right teams in Hoover too. I think that absolutely.
[00:03:44] Speaker B: Yeah. I don't have the bracket in front of me. I don't see where they'd be matched up with right now. But I mean, just kind of breaking down the metrics a little bit because that's what's, you know, that, that's kind of how the, the sausage is made when it comes to the postseason, you know, rankings and things like that. I mean, they do have 11 wins against the, the thing that's, that's interesting to me when you compare that mark to some of these other candidates like Nebraska A wins, Oregon 8 wins, West Virginia 5, Boston College 8, Wake Forest 6 and 14. I don't think wake it even gets in the mix with that bad of a record against Q1. Then you look at Arkansas. They're sitting at 11 wins against Q1 and 15 against Q1 and Q2. That stands out. So again, I'm not saying they're going to do it. And I, you know, I'm to this point with Arkansas where like, I, I'm sure you kind of feel the same way where like on a given weekend, I'm not 100 sure what to expect. They remind me of Florida a little bit. Like they can either look incredible or you're like, what the, what the heck just happened? But if they win those last two series, win a couple in Hoover, it absolutely is within striking distance. They, I do feel like they kind of control, they control their path a little bit here.
[00:04:52] Speaker A: You mentioned those Quad one wins and I had that written down here. You look at it, there's only six teams in the country who have more quad one wins than Arkansas. Florida's got 15. Georgia Tech, Texas and Alabama all have 13. And Auburn and A&M both have 12. Arkansas and Ole Miss both have 11. But the one thing that stands out to me too, about Arkansas is that they've got the three Quad four losses. And among the teams that are in the regional hosting conversation right now, Florida is the only other team who's got three Q4 losses. And I think it's kind of similar what's happened to Arkansas in Florida. You know, there have been some midweek games or, you know, that have kind of, you know, I guess, trapped them a little bit. And how much like, like when it comes to Quad one wins or Quad four losses, what, what do you think the selection committee looks at more?
[00:05:41] Speaker B: I think they look at what you did in your conference. I mean, I'll be really honest with you. I think if Arkansas is at 18 or 19 conference wins, that would be including the SEC tourname.
I don't think those Q4 losses even matter.
I mean, because for the most part they're midweek. I think the one.
Yeah. Two, two of them are Stetson, and
[00:06:01] Speaker A: I believe UT Arlington would be the other one.
[00:06:03] Speaker B: Yeah, yeah. The case the Kalyn Diker game or whatever for ut uta, you know, that was a Friday game. But again, those other two, you know, I just, I just don't think it ma, if you win that many games in that league and at that point, you know, you're probably sitting at 13, 14 Q1 wins, I don't think it Matters the I really don't.
[00:06:27] Speaker A: It's going to be different this year when they are or when they are signing say like number two seeds to number one because they've got this, I'll call them quadrants. So like the, for people who don't know, I'll explain it here.
Let's say the number one through four overall national seeds, they will be paired with the 29 through 32, 5 through 8, 25 through 28 and so on and so forth.
You know, like Kansas is a team that is, I mean, they're almost certainly going to host. They're leading the Big 12 by four games right now.
Let's say that Kansas and Arkansas end up in the same quadrant. Does the four hour bus ride from Fayetteville to Lawrence, does that become a consideration? Does, does proximity become a consideration between those teams that are matched up?
[00:07:10] Speaker B: Yeah, they do. I mean, if you're in that quadrant, it doesn't matter. Let's. The best example to make it the least confusing is this, is this example if UCLA is a number one national seed, they are paired with someone in that, you know, 29, 30, 31, 32 group, right? Well, if the 20, if the 29 team is UC Santa Barbara and the 31 team is, let's just say Texas State, even though UC Santa Barbara is not the 32, they're still going to send the 29 team to the 1 because it makes no sense to send UCSB to, you know, Texas or Texas A and M or whatever and not send them down the road. So it's going to be one of those weird things where I don't think they're actually going to. I mean, they'll announce the quads, but I don't think on the actual bracket, the way we do it, I don't think they're actually going to put those numbers in there because it would be confusing if, you know, the 31 team is going to the number one national seat as opposed to 32 teams. So yeah, geography, geographical considerations are definitely in play when it comes to those specific quads. But remember, for, for those who don't know, if you're not, let's just say you're the number one through number four national seeds and you're paired with 29, 30, 31, 32. You cannot be paired with a team that is like 26.
[00:08:24] Speaker A: I think for any reason, I think this is good for baseball. I remember in 2021, Arkansas was the number one national seed and they sent Nebraska here, the Big Ten champion, who I think they were right outside the, the hosting conversation. Like maybe they were 17 or 18.
And boy, that was a hard. That. That wore Arkansas down playing Nebraska. And then they got a hot NC State team that came in here in the super regional and we all know what happened. I feel like this is a good thing because in every other college sport that I know of, you protect your higher seeded teams. It happens in March Madness. It happens in the College Football Playoff. It feels like it should happen in baseball, too.
[00:09:03] Speaker B: No, I would totally agree.
I mean, this protects to some degree, right? But I mean, those number three seeds could still pretty much be anybody. Those number three seeds, for the most part are going to be all, you know, geographical considerations. You know, one of the perfect examples of that is this week in our projections. You know, we had A and M hosting Oklahoma State. And UTSA is a. UTSA being the three. I mean, that would be a really tough regional for a number eight national seed. But, you know, because of geography, that's, you know, UTSA is gonna have to go to Austin or College Station. And they were in Austin last year, so they're probably going to College Station. Well, they're in Austin. You know, based on today, they're in Austin.
[00:09:44] Speaker A: Last night they gave them a heck of a game, too.
[00:09:46] Speaker B: Yeah, that was, that was the first time, I think I saw a stabilizer. The first time Texas has beaten him in like five tries or something. So UTSA has kind of had their number.
[00:09:53] Speaker A: Texas had a grand Islam in the eighth inning to win that game.
[00:09:57] Speaker B: God, that was a. That was a meatball too. Like, I'm pretty sure I could have probably hit that to the war track.
[00:10:01] Speaker A: Was it 483ft that Carson Tenney hit it?
[00:10:04] Speaker B: Oh, I mean, it was blood. I think the left fielder might have taken a step.
[00:10:08] Speaker A: Yeah, don't waste your time. Right.
So the selection committee, we know that they put a lot of stock into rpi. Like last year, I think that the RPI team that hosted was 19.
So we know that that's a big number or a big metric that the selection committee uses. We've been told they're going to use this DSR Diamond Sports rating.
And also, is it the KPI that's also going to be used?
[00:10:32] Speaker B: Yeah, the Kevin Palga index. I want to say they use it for basketball, too.
[00:10:36] Speaker A: What are these like, like, what do these numbers mean and how are they different from rpi?
[00:10:41] Speaker B: Yeah, so the really interesting thing, KPI is a little bit more convoluted. I'm not as in tune with that One specifically. But I know DSR based on just kind of the work we've done with 643 charts of DSR is you really kind of came about because, you know, right now, all over the country, I think North Carolina just announced a impending weather cancellation against a team that's two hours away. Which I thought was kind of funny. You know, I mean, you can kind of figure. I feel like you can kind of wait that one out if they. If the school is literally an hour and 45 minutes away. But to each his own. But, I mean, you're seeing a situation now where teams are canceling because our RPI is going to drop. And one thing the DSR does, it's more of a predictive tool. It's like, what, you know, it's. It's giving you points based on, you know, what. What are you expected to do against that team? So, like, if Arkansas is expected to take two or three from Oklahoma and they do, so you tend, you know, you get rewarded for it. So it is one of those tools where, like, if, let's just say you're predicted to lose that series, you get rewarded pretty handsome by winning that series. The other thing that's interesting about DSR is the. The opponent, like, tanking doesn't matter. Like, if Arkansas plays Stetson, you know, they played them on, what, March 7th through 9th. If Arkansas plays Stetson and, you know, let's just say Stetson's good at the time. Stetson being terrible right now means nothing. Like, it's not. It's not tanking Arkansas's resume.
On the same token, if Arkansas played UAPB tomorrow and UAPB's 245 in the RPI, it doesn't hurt them. Whereas right now, I mean, a perfect example, again, kind of going back to last night, you know, A and M decided to play Prairie View. A m, who's like 301 in the RPI. Aggie started the day at 7. They're now 11 in the RPI just because they played the game. A game they won, was it 16, seven.
And now they drop four spots. The DSR, that would not, you know, be possible. So it just kind of fixes some of these things that, you know, that we always gripe about with rpi. The other interesting thing I like too about DSR is margin of victory, to an extent matters. You know, if Arkansas comes out, you know, blows out.
Oh, you all three games, like, you get rewarded for that.
And it does cap at 10. So, you know, back, you know, if you remember Back in the BCS days, I mean, coaches are just, you know, Mike Leach was notorious for it.
You know, if they were up by 28 or 30 in the fourth quarter, they're still passing because margin of victory mattered. Well, DSR caps at 10.
So if you're Arkansas and you're up 10 on the team, whether you're up 10 or whether you're up 18 runs, it doesn't matter. And so I do like that it caps, but it does reward a team if you, if you have a double digit win. So, yeah, I mean, that's kind of the gist of it.
You know, I do tend to think it favors the SEC team just a hair, but for the most part, I like how the metrics stacks up.
[00:13:41] Speaker A: How do you think Arkansas finishes the year? They've got ou, they got Kentucky left, and then obviously Hoover.
[00:13:48] Speaker B: I'll go with, I'll go with series.
Series wins in both the series.
And I mean, the tournament. Just, just. It depends on the matchup. Right?
[00:13:58] Speaker A: Yeah, it's so hard to figure out now, especially with the single elimination.
[00:14:02] Speaker B: Yeah, it's kind of tough to even know, like, but I mean, so if you finished, if Arkansas finished 17 and 13, I mean, they're probably fifth place, more than likely fifth place in the SEC, which, I mean, again, probably puts you in a pretty good spot going to the tournament, as long as you don't just lose one game and go home.
[00:14:22] Speaker A: Oklahoma comes in here this weekend. They've been kind of a hard team for me to get a read on this year. They'll play really kind of like Arkansas and Florida, but maybe to a lesser extent they'll play really good and then, you know, it's not so good. And I guess they just had a pitcher injury last week too. That's, that's worth monitoring.
[00:14:40] Speaker B: Yeah, I mean, Cam Johnson was kind of banged up. I'll be curious to see if he's in that, you know, in the injury report going to the weekend. I mean, the biggest thing for him, you know, he has had arguably kind of the strangest year I've seen for anybody. I mean, if you go look at his numbers, it's, you know, 29 walks in conference play, 32 strikeouts, but, oh, by the way, a 156 OBA against opposing teams. So, yeah, I mean, obviously he walks some guys, but I mean, when he's on, he's really good. So I would, I don't think it was very serious based on what I was told over the weekend, but we'll see kind of how Things look going on the weekend. But you're right about ou.
I feel like they're just one of those clubs that, you know, from a pure offensive standpoint, they will be versatile. Like, they will try to do something. You know, they will try to hit and run a lot. They're gonna steal, you know, they're gonna try to steal some bases. You know, Brendan Brock, to me, is one of the. One of the more kind of neat players in college baseball because he's a catcher who, by the way, has elite speed. You know, he's one of those guys that if he gets on base, you know, he can. He can wreak havoc a little bit. So I don't think Oklahoma offensively is a team that can overwhelm you. But what Oklahoma is offensively is a team that if you give them opportunities and walk guys, they will 100% make you pay for it. And then what I mean by that, they won't score eight runs in an inning, but you look up on the school board and it's, you know, on the line score and it's 1 2, 1, 1 2, and everything just kind of accumulates for ou. So do I think they're dangerous? Yeah, because if your pitching staff's not on, they can cause a lot of trouble.
[00:16:16] Speaker A: You broke the story earlier this week that ABS is going to come to the SEC tournament. I have seen enough of these experimental rules that come to Hoover to know that it's only a matter of time before it gets to the regular season, whether it be the double bag or the pitch clock or the communication devices. So when do you think this makes it to the regular season?
[00:16:35] Speaker B: I guess we'll see how Hoover goes, right? I mean, the biggest concern, I have to be honest with you, is in the big leagues, you know, everything kind of originates from the. For the manager in the dugout. And, you know, I was talking to somebody on the rules committee yesterday, and this will originate with the. The batter, the pitcher, or the catcher. And I just. I mean, that concerns me a little bit because, you know, if you're, you know, if you're Arkansas and you've got, you know, your freshman pitcher out there and he thinks he's being squeezed. I mean, and you're in your eye and you only have two seconds. So you can't look over to Matt Hobbs and go, hey, should I challenge? Like, you can't even look over to your dugout. So, I mean, how many kids are going to go like that to their, you know, you have to tap your hat to get a Challenge. How many kids are going to do that? And they're actually right. You're going to end up with, like, 19 abs challenges in one game because you're going to get overzealous pitchers or overzealous catchers who just think they're being screwed. And so let's go challenge it. And, oh, by the way, like, they're right.
[00:17:33] Speaker A: It's going to be interesting to see how this works. And there's a. There's a cost. There's a cost to this, too. Like, from what I'm from, I'm told to, you know, outfit your stadium with this type of technology.
It's a pretty expensive endeavor, and so expensive that that could be what prohibits it from getting to the sec, say, by, like, next year. But it just. It feels like it's a matter of time before it gets to sec.
[00:17:55] Speaker B: Yeah, it'll get to. Yeah, no, for sure it'll get to the sec. I mean, the problem I run into is, like, I don't know if it's even feasible at this point to make it for the ncaa, because, I mean, for the ncaa, you know, you're already, you know, you already got a lot of costs with the NCAA tournament in baseball, so you're going to spend all this money for your. Your championships to have these systems and all of these different stadiums. And it's not like you. I mean, somebody can correct me, but I don't think you can just get this thing up in three days. Like, I think it's a pretty significant process to do it. So, you know, I don't know if the SEC will do it next year or not, because if you can't do in the NCAA championships and no one else is doing it other than maybe the acc, like, kind of, what's the point?
[00:18:35] Speaker A: Well, I mean, you've also got all these programs, you know, like. Like here at Arkansas, you just had college tennis cut.
You know, everybody, they're worried about the bottom line. And, yeah, I can't imagine that, you know, there are very many college baseball programs that are going to, you know, kind of have the cash on hand, so to speak, to put this into place. It feels like it's going to have to be NCAA conferences step up and provide.
[00:18:58] Speaker B: Yeah, maybe the SEC just does it on its own. You know, they sit there and fit the bill for all these different ballparks to have it. But, yeah, it'll be interesting. I don't know what DVH has said about it, but I know some coaches in the league that I've talked to like it, but they're a little weary just because of what I said. I mean, we could end up, you know, in a situation Hoover where, you know, every other inning we're getting five or six challenges.
So we'll find out who the good umpires are pretty quick.
[00:19:25] Speaker A: Yeah, we'll find out who the catchers, you know, the strike zone are pretty quick too. Right.
[00:19:28] Speaker B: What's his name?
Jeff Head was very popular. My mentions yesterday. Good lord.
[00:19:33] Speaker A: Well, he wasn't. He wasn't bad. Over the weekend we've seen some more some players through here this year. Jeff does a good job. Kendall, you do a great job.
[00:19:40] Speaker B: I'm just talking to you, buddy.
[00:19:41] Speaker A: Yeah, Kendall, you do a great job too. Appreciate you coming on.
[00:19:44] Speaker B: You got it, man. Thanks, Matt. See you, bud.
[00:19:46] Speaker A: Appreciate it. Kendall Rogers of D1 Baseball, they do a great job there at D1 Baseball. You can read all their regional projections there. Right now, of course they've got Arkansas, as we mentioned, the number two seed in Tallahassee.
It's interesting baseball, American, D1 baseball, both have Arkansas as the number two seed in TallahASsee, but they go a different way to get them there. We talked about those quadrants, Arkansas and D1 baseball's projections. Florida State's the number 13 overall seed. Arkansas is the number 20 in Baseball Americas. Florida State's the number 12 overall seed, but Arkansas is the number 24. So it's interesting to see how those two different publications view the Razorbacks differently. Again, it feels like, and you could hear there with Kendall's comments, the D1 baseball folks, I think they're a little bit higher on the Razorbacks than the Baseball America people are. But it really is going to come down to the committee and what the committee thinks about Arkansas. Interesting to hear him say that he thinks Arkansas still is in the regional hosting picture. It just feels like with a 30 RPI it's going to be very difficult for Arkansas to get there. And of course the Razorbacks, they got to win games. And it starts this weekend with OU. That's going to be a 6 o' clock first pitch on Friday night. Arkansas will end the season with Kentucky next week up in Lexington. I want to tell you that at our website, whole hog sports.com we're going to have a story later today that I think you're going to want to check out. I've been talking to people in Hotton, Louisiana. This is where Christian Turner is from and that town, as you might imagine, is abuzz after his walk off home run to beat Ole Miss the other day. We're going to have that on our website later this afternoon. Hope that you'll check that out. Razorback softball at the SEC tournament right now. They're going to play Mississippi State today. We'll have coverage from that game as well. Everything going on on campus. You can read about it at our Website, whole hog sports.com I want to tell you too, you can subscribe to our podcast. We appreciate you listening or watching wherever you're watching or listening. Today we're on Apple Podcasts. We're on Spotify. We put our video version on YouTube. Also on our social media channels, on Facebook and Twitter. Just on any of those platforms. Search Whole Hog Sports. Hope that you'll subscribe like our Share them. It'll certainly help us. These are free podcasts. Certainly we want to keep them that way. And so we appreciate you participating, listening, watching wherever you are on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Facebook or Twitter. We're back with another podcast tomorrow. Bub Carpenter will be here in studio. We'll look ahead more in depth to this Oklahoma series. It's a big one for the Razorbacks. The last regular season series here in Fayetteville. Maybe the last series of the year for the Razorbacks at Baum Walker Stadium. Hope to see you then or at our website whole hogsports.com have a great day, everybody.
